Prep forecasting across nine kitchens
Head chefs were prepping to memory. Daily covers and prep quantities are now forecast per site, cutting waste without running short on service.
Nine kitchens, nine different guesses
The Larder Group ran nine sites with no shared view of demand. Each head chef prepped from experience, which worked until weather, a local event or a bank holiday moved covers by 30%. Waste was written off monthly and never traced back to a decision.
Covers first, then prep quantities
We forecast covers per site per service using two years of till data, local event calendars and weather. That feeds a prep sheet per kitchen: quantities by component, not by dish, so shared prep across the menu is counted once.
The sheet had to beat the chef, on paper, first
For three weeks the forecast printed alongside the chef own numbers and nobody was asked to follow it. Chefs marked which was closer each service. Once the forecast was winning four services in five, adoption took care of itself.
Less thrown away, nothing run out of
Food waste by weight fell 24% across the group, worth roughly £96,000 a year. Core-dish sell-outs, which the chefs feared would rise, went to zero because the forecast is per component rather than per dish.
I argued with it for three weeks. Then I started printing it.
TLExecutive Chef, The Larder Group